Collin County closed the first quarter of 2026 with a more balanced supply-demand picture than it has shown in roughly three years. North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) data for the county indicates active residential listings rose meaningfully year-over-year while closed sales stayed roughly in line with the prior year, pushing months-of-inventory toward the 3 to 4 month range in several submarkets for the first time since the post-2022 inventory crunch. (Exact figures update monthly; consult the current NTREIS report before making pricing decisions.)
For the luxury tier (which I define locally as roughly $1.25M and above), the picture is more nuanced. Frisco and Prosper both held firmer than the broader market, with strong list-to-close ratios and brisk days-on-market for move-in-ready homes in the most desirable feeder patterns. Allen and Plano, with older and more varied housing stock, saw more price discovery. The bottom half of the luxury tier there is noticeably more negotiable than it was a year ago.
Mortgage rates have drifted in a narrow band. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey has averaged in the mid-6% range for the conforming 30-year fixed through early 2026, with jumbo rates typically running a fraction of a point above that depending on loan size and credit profile. Rate-sensitivity in the luxury segment is real but secondary. Most of the buyers I'm working with at $1.5M+ are either paying cash or putting down 30 to 40%, which changes the financial logic considerably.
What this means practically: if you are a buyer with a clear thesis on a specific neighborhood, the spring window is unusually forgiving. Sellers who came to market in the last six weeks are, in many cases, the first ones to confront the changed supply picture, and they are listening to reason on reasonable offers. Sellers contemplating a Q2 listing should not assume 2022-style frenzy is still the baseline. Pricing honestly and preparing the home thoroughly will be the difference between eight days and eighty.
I track these numbers weekly for the six markets I serve. If you want the cut that's relevant to your neighborhood and price band, reach out directly. I'm happy to share what I'm seeing in the data and on the street.
“Months-of-supply is the number sellers should be watching, not median price.”
